Yemen bomb plot: key questions raised

WHAT WERE THE DEVICES?

The bomb found in Dubai on a FedEx flight from Sana'a, the capital of Yemen, was prepared in a "professional manner" and bore the imprint of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda.

According to Dubai police, it was hidden in the toner cartridge and casing of an ordinary office computer printer and contained explosives and an electrical circuit linked to a mobile phone SIM card, which could have acted as the detonator. The bomb also contained lead azide, an explosive compound that can be used in detonators.

Photographs show the cartridge of the printer loaded with pentaerythritol tetranitrate or PETN, a powerful plastic explosive that is colourless, odourless and cannot be detected easily.

"The parcel was prepared in a professional manner where a closed electrical circuit was connected to a mobile phone SIM card hidden inside the printer," said Dubai police in a statement.

Sally Leivesley, a terrorism expert, said the Dubai bomb appeared to be "sophisticated" and of a size that could have caused "devastation".

The device found at East Midlands airport was similar. It had arrived on a plane belonging to UPS, the parcel carrier, in a container that had come from Sana'a.

This device also contained PETN and mobile phone parts "cleverly hidden" in a Hewlett Packard printer. PETN was used in the failed attempt by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab to blow up a flight to Detroit at Christmas 2009 with explosives hidden in his underwear.

Theresa May, the Home Secretary, said yesterday that the East Midlands airport bomb was also viable.

HOW DID THE BOMBS GET ON BOARD THE PLANES?

The parcels could have been sent from a number of postal agents in the Yemen. Exactly where and when they were deposited will be a prime avenue of investigation.

President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen said yesterday that a woman had been arrested on suspicion of posting the two devices.

It is believed the items would have passed through X-Ray machines in Yemen, but it was not disclosed what other security measures were in place at the airport.

The cargo container in which the device found in Britain had been loaded was first flown to Cologne, in Germany, where it was placed on a flight to the US that arrived at East Midlands airport on a routine stopover.

WHO SENT THE DEVICES?

British and US intelligence agencies believe the bombs were constructed and placed on board the aircraft by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). After examining one of the devices Dubai police yesterday said: "This tactic carries of the hallmarks of methods used previously by terrorist organisations such as al-Qaeda."

AQAP was formed in 2009 from the merger of al-Qaeda's Saudi and Yemeni groups. Anwar al-Awlaki, an American-born ideologue, is regarded as the driving force behind the group's decision to transform itself from a regional threat into al-Qaeda's most active affiliate. It is accused of organising repeated attempts to attack the West.

Abdulmutallab said he trained in Yemen for his failed mission.

WHAT WERE THE INTENDED TARGETS?

Although the packages were addressed to synagogues in Chicago – President Barack Obama's home city – the authorities confirmed that they could have been detonated in mid-air, suggesting that the targets were likely to have been the aircraft.

Andy Oppenheimer, an explosives expert and author, said: "It seems more like an airborne attempt rather than an attempt to bomb the destination addresses. Why bother sending those packages across continents when you could just send them from within the US?"

Mrs May said: "I can confirm that the device was viable and could have exploded. The target may have been an aircraft and had it detonated the aircraft could have been brought down."

Mr Cameron said: "We believe that the device was designed to go off on the aeroplane. We cannot be sure when that was meant to take place. There is no early evidence it was designed to take place over British soil, but of course we cannot rule that out."

IS THERE SIGNIFICANCE IN THE TIMING OF THE PLOT?

The timing of the plot suggests the devices were intended to explode in the run-up to the US midterm elections taking place on Tuesday.

Any successful terrorist attack on either US soil or on US aircraft during this period would have had an enormous symbolic and political impact, spreading fear and panic among voters and raising doubts over Barack Obama's strategy of containing terrorism in Afghanistan. The President's expected appearance in Chicago today would have given any terrorist attack further significance.

HOW WAS THE PLOT FOILED?

Details of the plot began to emerge on Thursday night when MI6 received a tip-off from Saudi intelligence services.

They warned of the possibility that explosive devices had been placed on cargo flights from Yemen to Chicago. Information of an al-Qaeda plot was also passed to the CIA.

One of the suspect planes was stopped and searched at East Midlands airport. At the same time Dubai police said they were tipped off by a call from abroad, which warned of the possibility of an explosive device hidden in packages on the FedEx flight from Yemen.

Suspect devices were eventually found on both planes, though only after Leicester­shire police initially failed to realise the full significance of the package they examined. The Dubai authorities said: "Swift action enabled Dubai police to foil a potential act of terror."

The Government has been trying to build a stronger intelligence relationship with Yemen, but concerns remain over the quality of intelligence obtained by the Yemenis and how any shared intelligence may be used.

Janet Napolitano, the US homeland security secretary, said: "The security system has no one silver bullet in it. You have to have multiple layers. This layer started with good information from the Saudis. We were then immediately able to work with other countries, particularly the UK and the UAE, to segregate these packages, to begin the analysis about what they were, what they could have done."

HOW DID BRITISH POLICE MISS A DEVICE?

The initial search of the UPS plane at East Midlands airport was conducted by officers from Leicestershire police, and not by specialist counter-terrorist officers from Scotland Yard.

One package, which had protruding wires, was removed from the aircraft. Officers then gave clearance for the plane to continue on its journey to the US – a decision that will come under close scrutiny.

However, it was only after another device was discovered in Dubai that a second examination of the package was conducted in Leicestershire, uncovering explosive materials. It raises questions about why foreign agencies were able to identify the threat when British police failed to do so adequately.

Because PETN is so difficult to detect Leicestershire police may argue that they had little chance of working out exactly what was in the suspect package.

Reports of a second device being discovered at East Midlands airport were ruled incorrect by security sources.

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE PLOT FOR SECURITY?

The attempted attack has led to Britain banning cargo originating from Yemen and is likely to lead to a global review of air freight security.

Prof Paul Wilkinson, a terrorism expert at St Andrews University, said there had long been concerns that cargo was a weak point that could be exploited by terrorists.

"I think security of freight needs to be looked at. It has not been given the priority that it should have been," he said.

"al-Qaeda and its network has clearly been investigating the weak points and where they can exploit a gap in the existing security. We saw that with the 'underpants bomber'."

Lord Carlile, who reviews the Government's anti-terrorism legislation, agreed that cargo security was an "absolutely formidable" challenge.

"I have been worried by the risk presented by cargo and the difficulties for the authorities of policing it fully," he said.

"I visited East Midlands airport in the past and was told that 10,000 parcels a night were going through there to America alone.

"The challenge of checking every item is absolutely formidable."

There needed to be "eternal vigilance" but security and intelligence measures had worked well and prevented this attack, he added.

David Learmount, the safety editor of Flight International, said all containers were screened on arrival at airports by the airline carrier taking the cargo. On top of that, cargo from unstable countries, such as Yemen, was closely scrutinised.

British Airways added that all containers were thoroughly scanned. "There is 100 per cent screening, all documentation is completed and carefully scrutinised," said a spokesman.

"If there were any concerns boxes would be opened and closely examined."

Any future review could look at security at cargo depots, and how terrorists may be able to use "parcel tracking" services offered by carriers including UPS.

Customers can follow the progress of their parcel in great detail once it has been posted.

A code for each package can be entered in the company website, which then provides a live commentary about where the parcel is, giving estimated arrival times for the next stage of the journey.

It also shows which airline is carrying the item and even the flight number the parcel is on.

Such detailed information could be used by terrorists to track the progress of a bomb sent by parcel carrier. It could even be used to estimate – with a degree of accuracy – when to send a signal via a mobile phone detonator for maximum impact, perhaps when the plane is approaching the end of its flight and is likely to be above an urban area.

Because the device on-board the UPS plane, detected at East Midlands airport, had another stop in Philadelphia on the way to Chicago this would have given terrorists extra opportunities to detonate the bomb in the air – as it landed and departed at Philadelphia and then landed at Chicago.

The scare is unlikely to affect passenger security measures, elements of which were criticised as "completely redundant" last week by Martin Broughton, the BA chairman. However, any relaxation of passenger checks in the immediate wake of the cargo bomb plot seems unlikely.

The plot will have raised further concerns about terrorist threats to the London Olympics in 2012.

The Sunday Telegraph has learnt that security chiefs and the emergency services will "war game" a terrorist attack on the 2012 Olympics after a major review of safety at the Games uncovered areas of concern.

Ministers will also step up Britain's cyber security in an attempt to thwart a potential attack on the country's IT networks during the Games.

Lord West, the former Labour security minister, has warned that the Games will present Britain with the "greatest security challenge" since the Second World War.

It will be the biggest sporting event ever staged in Britain, with crowds outstripping those for the two major football tournaments held here – the 1966 World Cup and the 1996 European Championships.

Mrs May will shortly unveil plans for what ministers are terming a "new Olympic counter-terrorism exercise programme".

This will test existing plans and ensure that police and other emergency services are fully prepared for "any threat" to the Olympics.

WHO WAS IN CHARGE IN BRITAIN?

It was Mr Obama who gave the first public details of an explosive device being discovered on British soil – not Mr Cameron.

The Prime Minister made his first public comments on the bomb plot just after 6pm yesterday – more than 24 hours after he had first been informed of events as he returned to Britain on Friday from an EU summit in Brussels.

"We have to do even more to crack down and cut out the cancer of al-Qaeda in Yemen and the Arabian peninsula," he said.

"In the end these terrorists think that our interconnectedness, our openness as modern countries, makes us weak but they are wrong. It is a source of our strength."

Earlier yesterday, the Prime Minister did not attend the meeting of Cobra, the emergency committee, in Whitehall, nor did he even "dial in" to the gathering from Chequers, his Buckinghamshire retreat. Mrs May chaired the emergency meeting.

Mr Cameron was being kept "closely in touch with events" by the Home Secretary and senior officials. He telephoned Ed Miliband during the afternoon to brief the Labour leader personally.

The Prime Minister's decision to keep a relatively low key drew a stark contrast with his Labour predecessors, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, who were both quick to take to the airwaves in a crisis. Some MPs said it was odd that Mr Cameron waited so long before making his first statement on the plot.

Downing Street sources made it clear the strategy was deliberate. "Gordon Brown was on our TV screens the whole time when things like this happened," said one. "We want to do it differently.

"Apart from anything else, if the PM continually makes statements when very few facts are known there is a danger of inflaming the situation and even of sparking panic.

"We are running a Cabinet government and we want ministers to take the lead, as Theresa did at Cobra.

Who's in charge? Clearly David is. He is being constantly briefed."

Mr Cameron spoke to Mr Obama yesterday afternoon before recording his televised statement at Chequers. They agreed that security experts in Britain and the US would remain in close contact.

A Downing Street spokesman said: "The Prime Minister spoke to President Obama to discuss the terrorist plot that was disrupted yesterday as a result of close UK/US co-operation and joint working with other international partners.

"They both expressed their appreciation for the professionalism of the British and American authorities involved. They agreed that their teams would remain in close contact in the hours and days ahead.

"The security and safety of the British and American people was the top priority."

The spokesman said Mr Cameron had also spoken to President Saleh of Yemen.

"Both leaders affirmed their common interest in fighting terrorism. They agreed that their authorities would continue to work closely together to identify and bring to justice those involved in this plot," she added.

IS THIS A NEW STRATEGY BY THE TERRORISTS?

The likelihood of the latest plot is that the aircraft themselves were the targets and that the plan was to bring them down over the US or Britain, inflicting mass casualties on a densely-populated urban area.

The attempt to use cargo flights to wreak havoc would mark a disturbing new tactic in the terrorists' armoury.

al-Qaeda's strategy has long been to cause panic and chaos with high-profile attacks that cause maximum disruption and loss of life, such as the September 11 attacks and the Jule 7 London bombings.

The 2001 shoe bomb plot, the 2006 liquid bomb plot and Abdulmutallab's attempt in 2009 to bring down an aircraft all targeted international passenger flights.

The result of these failed attacks was heightened security at civilian airports across the world. The result of the latest plot is likely to result in similar increased measures for cargo flights.